For many Orange County voters, the 2024 election boiled down to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.
A psychological concept that outlines five levels of human needs, Maslow’s hierarchy argues basic necessities like food, housing and financial stability take precedence over abstract ideas.
The majority of 838 Orange County voters surveyed a week after Election Day by UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology indicated the economy was a key issue that determined how they voted, with 50% of all surveyed voters reporting dissatisfaction with their economic situation. Economic struggles, the survey suggested, cut across party lines.
Only 9% thought their personal financial situation had improved compared to four years ago, while 34% reported that it had worsened.
Voters, particularly Republicans, who were negative about the economy or their own financial well-being gave President-elect Donald Trump a big boost. Among those who said they believe they are worse off now than four years ago, Trump received twice the level of his support compared to Vice President Kamala Harris, the poll found.
“When we asked people to name the No. 1 issue, this (the economy) was it,” said Jon Gould, dean of UCI’s School of Social Ecology, which oversaw the survey. “Over and above everything. Head and shoulders above everything.”
“This was not a transformative election,” Gould added. “This was … much more people being quite disappointed with their economic situation, which voters typically take out on the incumbent.”
While Harris won Orange County, her margin of victory (2.7%) was much smaller compared to previous Democratic presidential nominees up against Trump in 2016 (8.6%) and 2020 (9.0%).
On the flip side, Harris resonated with lower-income voters earning under $50,000 in Orange County while Trump received solid support from lower middle-class voters earning between $50,000 and $74,999. Among wealthier voters, the two candidates were almost evenly split.
“The middle class, and it’s really more of a lower middle class where Trump does better, is a situation in which it’s back to the economy and people feeling like they have not done as well over the last four years, and they’re taking that out on the incumbent,” Gould said.
But the UCI-OC poll, released Friday, Dec. 6, found that concerns about the economy weren’t the only downer coming out of this election cycle.
Democracy in limbo?
With the 2024 election over, half of surveyed voters in Orange County worry that democracy as we’ve known it for the past 200-plus years might be in danger.
And those voters come from every part of the political universe.
Six in ten Democrats told UCI researchers that they are democracy fretters. So did 54% of voters the survey called independents, defined as those not affiliating with a major party.
Even 36% of Republicans — members of the party that just swept control of the White House, U.S. Senate and U.S. House — worry that democracy is unprotected.
The reasons behind voters’ concerns about democracy are unclear — the poll simply asked voters whether they believe “democracy is secure or not,” Gould said, not why.
But Gould speculated several theories for Republicans stand out, including that right-leaning voters may fear future losses to Democrats despite holding power.
“They could also be looking at their numbers in the House and realize that they’re going to have a difficult time maintaining control,” he said.
While Republicans have a five-seat advantage in the House next year, they may end up with less leverage early in the 119th Congress due to several GOP lawmakers being tapped by Trump for roles in his administration. If they’re confirmed by the Senate, special elections will be required to fill the vacated seats. And one House vacancy has already occurred following Florida Republican Matt Gaetz’s resignation.
Another factor could be the 24% of “modestly attached” Republicans — those not fully committed to the party — who said they voted for Harris.
“There’s probably an overlap between that group and some who feel democracy isn’t too secure because they are not fans of Trump,” said Gould. “These are people who are ‘George H.W. Bush Republicans.’ Some would say they are ‘Ronald Reagan Republicans.’ These are the people who wonder, ‘What happened to my party?’”
‘Dirty tricks’ and distrust
Orange County voters criticized the behavior of both presidential campaigns, but Trump’s campaign faced much more backlash when it came to accusations of “dirty tricks,” such as voter suppression, voter fraud, voter intimidation and soliciting help from foreign actors.
While about half of voters said they believe Harris’ campaign engaged in dirty tricks, nearly three-quarters said they believe Trump’s camp intimidated voters. Around two-thirds said they believed Trump’s campaign suppressed voter turnout and solicited foreign interference.
Gould said the poll did not ask respondents why they hold these views.
The poll also found that a majority of self-described Republicans said they believed Trump broke the rules.
“Even Republicans are saying they think the Trump campaign was more likely to engage in intimidation, foreign interference and suppression. To me, that’s an incredible finding, that they would say that about their own candidate,” Gould said.
When it comes to trust in the electoral system, opinions were all over the place. Overall, most Orange County voters said they believed the election was conducted fairly, but there were big differences depending on age and along party lines.
Younger voters aged 18-24 were the most skeptical, with 45% expressing doubts about the election’s integrity, while voters 65 and older were overwhelmingly confident in the process.
Interestingly, Democrats (34%) were much more distrustful this time around compared to Republicans (6%), flipping the trend found by other researchers after the 2020 election.
“What’s really interesting is these numbers are exactly the reverse from the last time around. You’re more trustful of the process when your guy wins than when your guy doesn’t,” said Gould. “In terms of the age differences … there’s just much more of a distrust of institutions among the young than there are the old.”
Losing friends
The poll also found the political divide in Orange County is as personal as it is political.
Many voters reported holding negative views of those on the other side of the aisle, believing they only care about themselves.
Harris voters were especially critical, with nearly 80% feeling this way. Meanwhile, just one in four Trump voters said they believe the other side has good intentions.
But it’s not just opinions that appear strained — relationships are, too.
Nearly one in three voters said politics has cost them friendships or close relationships, with Democrats (36%) reporting the biggest fallout compared with Republicans (25%) and voters not affiliated with a major party (23%).
Trump vs. Harris
For Trump supporters, the election was mostly about their candidate. In fact, around eight in 10 of Trump voters said they were voting for him rather than against Harris.
Meanwhile, 43% of Harris supporters said they were motivated by their dislike of Trump.
“In some ways, this election was about how much support Trump had and was going to be able to maintain,” said Gould. “He started off with more support than (Harris) did; his people were much more excited to vote than hers. So Harris’ task was always going to be more difficult.”
When it came to excitement, Trump’s base was fired up — 59% of his voters said they were “very excited” to vote for him compared to 37% of Harris supporters.
Trump’s voters were also locked in early, while Harris picked up more support in September and October but failed to build on it as the race came to a close.
President Joe Biden, who dropped out of the 2024 race in July, also struggled with support in Orange County, with more than six in 10 voters disapproving of his performance in the White House and 40% who strongly disapproved. The poll found that among those who strongly disapproved, 80% supported Trump.
The poll also found that neither Trump nor Harris was particularly popular overall, with both holding net unfavorable ratings among voters.
One bright spot, however, in the survey about the county is that while voters generally don’t feel good about the direction of the state or the country, pluralities in both major voter groups believe that Orange County itself is on the right track.
“Whatever is going on nationally, people still do feel better about living here than elsewhere,” Gould said. “There are opportunities here at the county level to find common ground that we may not find when people are focusing on the state or the national level.”
The poll, conducted from Nov. 12-18 online, surveyed 838 adults living in Orange County and has a margin of error of 5.5%.
